← OCT 5 Store Championship @ YUGUCO
Water FractalTier 1
at OCT 5 Store Championship @ YUGUCO
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
74.4%
avg ELO +14.0 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186
· median 1186
· range 1186–1186
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1084
Q1 1176
Q3 1322
1498
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.5 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
