Fire ExiaTier 2
at DTR Store Championships
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1103
· median 1103
· range 1103–1103
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1159
Q3 1360
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
