Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DTR Store Championships
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.1%
avg ELO -10.4 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1058
· median 1058
· range 1058–1058
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1159
Q3 1360
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
