← DTR Store Championships @ CM Dunedin
Water FractalTier 1
at DTR Store Championships @ CM Dunedin
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.6%
avg ELO +7.3 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1168
Q1 1309
Q3 1408
1558
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 15.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
