← Grand Archive - Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at Grand Archive - Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-2-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.7%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
57.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1302
· range 1156–1447
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
997
Q1 1150
Q3 1405
1525
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.3% | +11.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
