Water FractalTier 1
at LLE DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-3-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.5%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1307
· range 1181–1433
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1105
Q1 1183
Q3 1370
1563
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
