← Realgoodeal Distorted Reflections Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Realgoodeal Distorted Reflections Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 1 12.5% 3 100.0% 63.8% 60.0% 56.4% 1328 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 59.8% 53.3% 54.6% 1239
3 Wind Shadowstrike 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 51.0% 53.3% 50.5% 1280
4 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 59.6% 53.3% 54.5% 1147 ↓ low
5 Fire Aggro 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 49.9% 46.7% 50.0% 1067 ↓ low
6 Fire Oblation 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 47.6% 46.7% 48.9% 1295
7 Water Neos 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 33.3% 46.7% 42.2% 1477 ↑ top
8 Fire Suzaku 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 34.9% 40.0% 43.0% 1202 ↓ low