EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA DTR 店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 4 | 12.5% | 21 | 64.3% | 54.3% | 56.6% | 52.5% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.8% | 54.5% | 56.4% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 62.1% | 54.4% | 54.9% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 48.2% | 52.8% | 47.4% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 43.5% | 52.0% | 46.3% | 1386 | — |
| 6 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 8 | 75.0% | 58.9% | 51.8% | 50.4% | 1471 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 50.0% | 46.8% | 50.6% | 49.3% | 1403 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 9.4% | 16 | 46.9% | 52.0% | 50.3% | 51.3% | 1264 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 53.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 1440 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 12.5% | 18 | 58.3% | 63.1% | 49.2% | 51.4% | 1281 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.1% | 49.1% | 51.7% | 1271 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.7% | 48.3% | 49.2% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 35.0% | 48.0% | 44.0% | 1502 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 9.4% | 11 | 31.8% | 43.6% | 47.0% | 49.1% | 1233 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 33.3% | 37.6% | 45.7% | 45.5% | 1383 | — |
| 16 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.8% | 45.5% | 46.8% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 6.2% | 7 | 35.7% | 46.2% | 45.4% | 48.1% | 1276 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.2% | 42.9% | 44.2% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 33.8% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 1407 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Wind Beast | 1 | 3.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 39.7% | 40.0% | 44.5% | 1051 | ↓ low |