← Store Championship IKI Cardshop
Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championship IKI Cardshop
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1318
· median 1318
· range 1250–1387
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1036
Q1 1219
Q3 1385
1437
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
