← Symphony DTR Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Symphony DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Oblation 1 10.0% 7 100.0% 59.6% 70.0% 55.8% 1652 ↑ top
2 Fire Suited 1 10.0% 6 50.0% 54.1% 53.7% 55.8% 1264
3 Fire Rile 6 60.0% 19 55.3% 55.8% 53.3% 52.9% 1311
4 Fire Crux Mage 1 10.0% 6 66.7% 49.4% 52.0% 48.4% 1432 ↑ top
5 Water Fractal 1 10.0% 6 66.7% 45.0% 52.0% 45.3% 1396 ↑ top
6 Fire Seiryuu 1 10.0% 5 40.0% 56.0% 44.0% 50.3% 1223 ↓ low
7 Fire Suzaku 1 10.0% 3 33.3% 54.9% 42.5% 49.9% 1182 ↓ low
8 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 10.0% 4 12.5% 42.0% 41.3% 46.1% 1159 ↓ low
9 Wind Seiryuu 1 10.0% 6 16.7% 41.9% 38.0% 43.8% 1168 ↓ low
10 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 10.0% 4 0.0% 29.2% 35.0% 36.3% 1162 ↓ low