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EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Shipwreck Games DTR Store Championship . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Suzaku 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 66.7% 58.3% 60.6% 1364
2 Fire Crux Mage 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 65.6% 56.0% 57.6% 1378
3 Wind Allies 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 52.7% 56.0% 51.8% 1453 ↑ top
4 Wind Shadowstrike 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 48.9% 55.0% 49.6% 1352
5 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 16.7% 8 50.0% 42.3% 50.5% 47.9% 1492 ↑ top
6 Wind Astra Cleric 1 8.3% 4 62.5% 51.1% 50.0% 48.1% 1522 ↑ top
7 Wind Cats 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 53.6% 45.0% 50.9% 1101 ↓ low
8 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 44.6% 44.0% 47.1% 1155 ↓ low
9 Water Tera Mage 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 40.3% 44.0% 46.1% 1355
10 Wind Umbra Guardian 1 8.3% 3 16.7% 45.9% 43.3% 48.1% 1171 ↓ low
11 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 8.3% 2 0.0% 39.5% 40.0% 43.7% 1140 ↓ low