EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Store Chapionship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 9.1% | 7 | 71.4% | 51.7% | 60.0% | 54.4% | 1358 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Suited | 1 | 9.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 61.6% | 60.0% | 58.5% | 1208 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 9.1% | 7 | 78.6% | 65.4% | 57.3% | 57.5% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 9.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 63.0% | 52.0% | 55.2% | 1304 | — |
| 5 | Fire Rile | 6 | 54.5% | 24 | 54.2% | 47.1% | 51.0% | 48.6% | 1277 | — |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 9.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 52.8% | 47.7% | 48.7% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 9.1% | 8 | 37.5% | 36.0% | 45.2% | 42.6% | 1233 | — |
| 8 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 32.7% | 41.0% | 42.3% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 1 | 9.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 52.8% | 40.6% | 51.2% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 7 | 14.3% | 41.8% | 38.3% | 47.4% | 1237 | — |