EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 68.1% | 60.0% | 57.2% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 68.1% | 60.0% | 57.2% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.0% | 54.7% | 54.8% | 1227 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 11.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 63.4% | 54.3% | 55.6% | 1198 | — |
| 5 | Fire Suited | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.5% | 48.0% | 46.9% | 1254 | — |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.6% | 48.0% | 48.4% | 1269 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.1% | 45.0% | 47.7% | 1104 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Rile | 2 | 22.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 33.5% | 41.1% | 41.1% | 1143 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 1111 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.3% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1076 | ↓ low |