← Tabletop Village Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Tabletop Village Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 1 4.2% 7 100.0% 69.6% 60.0% 56.4% 1367 ↑ top
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 4.2% 7 71.4% 61.8% 56.7% 55.5% 1436 ↑ top
3 Horse and Taxes 1 4.2% 7 71.4% 59.0% 56.7% 55.3% 1326
4 Wind Wakeup Combo 2 8.3% 10 50.0% 48.6% 52.7% 51.5% 1343
5 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 8.3% 10 60.0% 52.7% 51.7% 50.4% 1422 ↑ top
6 Fire Arcane 1 4.2% 4 50.0% 51.4% 50.0% 50.6% 1272
7 Fire Crux Mage 1 4.2% 5 60.0% 48.8% 50.0% 48.0% 1327
8 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 4.2% 5 60.0% 64.2% 50.0% 53.3% 1315
9 Water Astra Ranger 1 4.2% 3 33.3% 42.2% 50.0% 50.1% 1318
10 Water Genbu 1 4.2% 5 50.0% 52.2% 50.0% 51.4% 1295
11 Wind Lorraine 1 4.2% 4 50.0% 51.5% 50.0% 50.6% 1398 ↑ top
12 Wind Shadowstrike 1 4.2% 5 60.0% 67.6% 50.0% 54.8% 1298
13 Water Aetherwing 1 4.2% 5 40.0% 45.5% 48.6% 48.3% 1309
14 Fire Aggro 1 4.2% 5 40.0% 36.4% 47.5% 45.2% 1343
15 Fire Tera Cleric 1 4.2% 5 30.0% 42.5% 47.1% 48.9% 1100 ↓ low
16 Water Tera Mage 2 8.3% 9 33.3% 50.0% 46.7% 50.3% 1141 ↓ low
17 Wind Astra Cleric 2 8.3% 9 38.9% 35.8% 46.3% 44.5% 1320
18 Water Allies 1 4.2% 5 20.0% 27.7% 43.3% 41.6% 1357 ↑ top
19 Water Umbra Guardian 1 4.2% 3 16.7% 42.9% 43.3% 46.7% 1102 ↓ low
20 Fire Zander 1 4.2% 5 20.0% 43.2% 42.9% 46.4% 1194 ↓ low