← 11/8 Store Championship - The Banish Zone

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at 11/8 Store Championship - The Banish Zone

decks
2 (12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6 4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.5% avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
54.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1372 · median 1372 · range 1250–1494 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989 Q1 1115 Q3 1357 1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 12.5% 0
Wind Arcane 12.5% 0
Wind Razorgale 12.5% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 60.9% +8.1
Fire Aetherwing 6.2% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 6.2% 0
Fire Suited 6.2% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 6.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.9% +1.4
Water Genbu 6.2% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 6.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.4% -18.6
Wind Shadowstrike 6.2% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 6.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.5% +13.6
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Undying Dreams +1.00 1 0 0
Devastating Blow +1.00 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -1.00 0 1 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman +1.00 1 0 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Crux Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Sudden Steel -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Disintegrate -1.00 0 1 0
Potion Infusion: Seal -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Ignite the Soul -1.00 0 1 0
Spark Alight -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Flamewreath Call -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/32291/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage