← Oinkers Island Store Championship
Fire RileTier 2
at Oinkers Island Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.6% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 63 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 63 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Tea Party | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |