← The End Games Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at The End Games Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 2 13.3% 13 73.1% 65.9% 62.8% 61.1% 1423 ↑ top
2 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 6.7% 6 66.7% 48.6% 58.7% 53.4% 1388 ↑ top
3 Fire Oblation 1 6.7% 6 66.7% 42.1% 56.0% 48.9% 1507 ↑ top
4 Wind Arcane 2 13.3% 14 60.7% 64.7% 54.7% 58.9% 1335
5 Fire Slimes 1 6.7% 6 41.7% 49.4% 49.2% 52.3% 1279
6 Fire Rile 9 60.0% 33 48.5% 42.4% 48.0% 45.2% 1356
7 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 6.7% 5 40.0% 34.7% 44.2% 39.3% 1388 ↑ top
8 Fire Crux Mage 1 6.7% 6 33.3% 58.5% 43.5% 54.2% 1253 ↓ low
9 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.7% 5 10.0% 45.2% 36.5% 49.2% 1001 ↓ low
10 Fire Aetherwing 1 6.7% 6 16.7% 44.0% 33.1% 43.7% 1129 ↓ low