← The Armoury Store Championships
Fire ExiaTier 2
at The Armoury Store Championships
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-8-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.0%
avg ELO -9.0 per match
expected value
39.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1149
· median 1149
· range 1019–1278
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1019
Q1 1098
Q3 1358
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 23.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -12.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Water Exia Jin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
