← The Armoury Store Championships
Water Crux MageTier 2
at The Armoury Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 23.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 23.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Exia | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cone of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Accord | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |