← GuildHall DTR Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GuildHall DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 46.0% | 54.8% | 49.5% | 1468 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 8 | 75.0% | 57.4% | 54.5% | 51.4% | 1280 | — |
| 3 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 60.7% | 54.4% | 55.8% | 1218 | — |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 21.1% | 21 | 59.5% | 58.6% | 54.3% | 54.2% | 1280 | — |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 10.5% | 13 | 65.4% | 52.1% | 52.1% | 48.9% | 1280 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 10.5% | 9 | 61.1% | 48.1% | 50.2% | 47.1% | 1280 | — |
| 7 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 5.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 46.6% | 48.7% | 49.0% | 1304 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.3% | 46.7% | 48.2% | 1084 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.3% | 45.2% | 48.7% | 1207 | — |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.8% | 44.0% | 47.6% | 1265 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 45.0% | 43.3% | 45.7% | 1298 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 10.5% | 10 | 25.0% | 44.1% | 43.1% | 47.6% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 31.9% | 40.0% | 43.7% | 999 | ↓ low |