Water FractalTier 1
at 塔普卡 DTR賽季店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fight for the Crown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |