Water Tera MageTier 2
at Sparks Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.0%
avg ELO -4.5 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1423
· median 1423
· range 1423–1423
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1271
Q1 1380
Q3 1472
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
