EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Taipei 101聯賽決賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Water Fractal
61.3%
↑ top
1st
Wind Crux Lorraine
66.1%
↑ top
3rd
Fire Luxem Assassin
60.0%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 12.5% | 9 | 100.0% | 55.3% | 66.1% | 52.4% | 1516 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 85.7% | 53.6% | 61.3% | 51.8% | 1528 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 51.2% | 60.0% | 51.5% | 1694 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 51.3% | 58.3% | 50.8% | 1471 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.8% | 55.4% | 50.7% | 1288 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.8% | 54.3% | 51.4% | 1271 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 6.2% | 9 | 55.6% | 49.5% | 50.7% | 49.4% | 1482 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 18.8% | 14 | 50.0% | 48.2% | 49.4% | 49.0% | 1495 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 20.0% | 46.4% | 46.0% | 49.0% | 1427 | — |
| 10 | Fire Rile | 9 | 56.2% | 30 | 40.0% | 48.8% | 45.3% | 49.5% | 1423 | — |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 28.6% | 50.8% | 44.0% | 50.9% | 1239 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 47.3% | 40.0% | 49.0% | 1307 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 46.3% | 35.4% | 47.9% | 1389 | — |