Fire AggroTier 2
at GA DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.2%
avg ELO -11.6 per match
expected value
43.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1250
· median 1250
· range 1178–1323
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1145
Q1 1178
Q3 1272
1351
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 33.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.1% | -17.1 |
