← STORE CHAMPIONSHIP AT LITTLE SPECTACLES!!! :O
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP AT LITTLE SPECTACLES!!! :O.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 8.3% | 7 | 100.0% | 78.4% | 65.7% | 64.2% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 55.3% | 59.3% | 57.0% | 1502 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 64.4% | 57.8% | 57.4% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.9% | 56.0% | 57.0% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Diana | 1 | 8.3% | 7 | 71.4% | 68.6% | 54.6% | 57.4% | 1218 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Rile | 5 | 41.7% | 17 | 47.1% | 40.6% | 50.7% | 48.3% | 1369 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 44.1% | 50.0% | 47.6% | 1368 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 16.7% | 7 | 42.9% | 38.5% | 45.5% | 44.2% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.6% | 42.5% | 45.0% | 1086 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.9% | 40.0% | 44.9% | 1131 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 34.6% | 36.3% | 42.8% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 37.8% | 35.8% | 43.2% | 1038 | ↓ low |