Fire ExiaTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1173
· median 1173
· range 1124–1222
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1069
Q1 1124
Q3 1222
1314
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -13.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
