Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.2%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1225
· median 1225
· range 1217–1233
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1069
Q1 1124
Q3 1222
1314
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 22.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Suited | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | -14.4 |
