← Cardtastic Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Cardtastic Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 20.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.8% | -5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |