← Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.2% | +20.4 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condemned Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reverse Affliction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |