← Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Grand Archive DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |