← Strictly Broken TCG Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Strictly Broken TCG Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-8-0
overall winrate
27.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.9%
avg ELO -7.0 per match
expected value
44.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1241
· median 1241
· range 1131–1351
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1131
Q1 1158
Q3 1239
1351
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
