Fire RileTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
7
(29.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
22-10-3
overall winrate
67.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.4%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
56.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1338
· median 1321
· range 1237–1507
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1123
Q3 1385
1560
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 60.0% | +5.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.6% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.3% | -13.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -4.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Ciel | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.0% | +5.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.2% | +4.6 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.8 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Merlin, Memory Thief, Sword of Shadows. Losers more often ran: Safeguard Amulet, Grand Crusader's Ring.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Merlin, Memory Thief
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Sword of Shadows
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 97 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 77 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |