← Game Center Narellan DTR Store Championship
Water CielTier 1
at Game Center Narellan DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1429
· median 1429
· range 1429–1429
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1259
Q3 1436
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rile | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
