Water NeosTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.9%
avg ELO +5.1 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1153–1153
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1155
Q3 1383
1453
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 25.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
