Fire RileTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
7
(36.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
17-5-3
overall winrate
74.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.2%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
59.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1413
· median 1429
· range 1223–1702
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1145
Q1 1248
Q3 1449
1702
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 47.7% | -1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 60.9% | +7.0 |
| Water Fractal | 10.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 5.3% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 66.4% | +12.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Rending Flames, Regal Inquisition. Losers more often ran: Spirit of Fire, Crux Sight, Safeguard Amulet.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 99 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 79 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Firetongue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vertus, Gaia's Roar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Amorphous Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ghost Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arcane Elemental | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |