← Pokebox USA Store Championships DTR
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Pokebox USA Store Championships DTR
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1561
· median 1561
· range 1561–1561
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1031
Q1 1321
Q3 1458
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
