Water NeosTier 2
at DTR BrandX StoreChamp
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-2-3
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1355
· median 1355
· range 1355–1355
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1125
Q1 1248
Q3 1409
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
