← Hobibear DTR Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Hobibear DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1221
· median 1221
· range 1186–1256
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1221
Q3 1431
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 13.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
