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Fire RileTier 1
at Store championship azure dtr
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.4% | -15.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 57 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 57 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |