Fire RileTier 2
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 37.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.9% | +18.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |