Fire RileTier 1
at GGG DTR Store Championship
decks
6
(46.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-10-0
overall winrate
52.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.4%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
52.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1334
· range 1192–1419
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1128
Q1 1213
Q3 1409
1509
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.2% | -1.3 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Evercurrent Raider, Fluffy Shopkeep, Wind Resonance Bauble. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Mirror, Huaji of Heaven's Rise, Reduce to Ash.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Huaji of Heaven's Rise
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Dungeon Guide
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Jin, Zealous Maverick
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Proof of Life
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 134 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 114 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rousing Rattle Drum | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodbond Bladesworn | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fabled Azurite Fatestone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Berserker Plate | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Foraging Fox | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strengthen the Bonds | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Journey's Beginning | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Craggy Fatestone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |