Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at GGG DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
5-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
68.1%
avg ELO +10.4 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1419
· median 1419
· range 1419–1419
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1128
Q1 1213
Q3 1409
1509
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 46.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
