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Fire RileTier 1

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decks
2 (25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8 5-2-1
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.4% avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
54.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1339 · median 1339 · range 1215–1463 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1056 Q1 1183 Q3 1295 1463
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 25.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.7% -5.1
Fire Aggro 12.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 61.6% +18.5
Fire Arcane 12.5% 0
Fire Oblation 12.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.5% +23.1
Fire Umbra Ciel 12.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.0% +4.8
Horse and Taxes 12.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.5% -23.1
Wind Crux Lorraine 12.5% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 58.0% +7.7
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 59 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing -1.00 0 1 0
Dilu, Auspicious Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Reduce to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit of Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Staggering Strike -1.00 0 1 0
Volda, Smolder's Spite +1.00 1 0 0
Embercrypt Burn +1.00 1 0 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Ciel, Mirage's Grave -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Beastsoul Visage +1.00 1 0 0
Umbra Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Winbless Kiteshield +1.00 1 0 0
Beseech the Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Baleful Oblation -1.00 0 1 0
Cinder Geyser +1.00 1 0 0
Fractal of Sparks +1.00 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Manxome Armoire -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs +1.00 1 0 0
Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer +1.00 1 0 0
Backup Charger -1.00 0 1 0
Extorting Blackjack -1.00 0 1 0
Vanitas, Convergent Ruin +1.00 1 0 0
Inert Sword -1.00 0 1 0
Ciel, Loyal Valet -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Evercurrent Raider -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Grande Sonnerie -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge -1.00 0 1 0
Ciel, Omenbringer -1.00 0 1 0
Chalice of Blood -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Searing Rebuke +1.00 1 0 0
Vanitas, Dominus Rex +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Acolyte +1.00 1 0 0
The Looking Glass -1.00 0 1 0
Profane Bindings -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit of Serene Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Grim Pastiche -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Carter, Synthetic Reaper -1.00 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter +1.00 1 0 0
Fiery Interference +1.00 1 0 0
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion +1.00 1 0 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Advent of the Stormcaller -1.00 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 1 0
Impact Hammer +1.00 1 0 0
Consumption Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/34063/archetypes/Fire Rile