Fire RileTier 1
at DTR Store Champs
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 59 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Kiteshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |