Horse and TaxesTier 1
at DTR Store Champs
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
68.0%
avg ELO +10.4 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1215
· median 1215
· range 1215–1215
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1056
Q1 1183
Q3 1295
1463
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Horse and Taxes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
