← PI STORE CHAMPIONSHIP !!

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PI STORE CHAMPIONSHIP !!. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Crux Mage 1 5.3% 6 66.7% 49.1% 57.1% 52.3% 1399 ↑ top
2 Fire Aggro 3 15.8% 12 62.5% 49.7% 54.8% 50.4% 1348
3 Wind Astra Cleric 1 5.3% 5 60.0% 48.0% 53.3% 50.0% 1465 ↑ top
4 Fire Suzaku 2 10.5% 8 62.5% 65.2% 52.4% 55.7% 1306
5 Water Genbu 1 5.3% 5 50.0% 58.0% 51.2% 52.9% 1118 ↓ low
6 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 5.3% 7 71.4% 63.3% 51.1% 52.6% 1461 ↑ top
7 Wind Seiryuu 1 5.3% 5 60.0% 44.0% 50.0% 44.6% 1407 ↑ top
8 Fire Arcane 1 5.3% 4 25.0% 43.0% 47.8% 49.2% 1209 ↓ low
9 Fire Exia 1 5.3% 3 33.3% 52.9% 46.7% 51.4% 1218 ↓ low
10 Wind Shadowstrike 2 10.5% 11 45.5% 57.2% 45.6% 50.2% 1278
11 Water Allies 1 5.3% 5 40.0% 44.6% 45.0% 46.8% 1442 ↑ top
12 Fire Crux Mage 1 5.3% 4 25.0% 40.4% 44.0% 45.0% 1304
13 Fire Seiryuu 1 5.3% 1 0.0% 38.5% 40.0% 38.5% 1256 ↓ low
14 Wind Lorraine 1 5.3% 2 0.0% 27.4% 40.0% 36.5% 1336
15 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 5.3% 2 0.0% 38.6% 40.0% 42.9% 1265 ↓ low