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Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championsips
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-9-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.0%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
41.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1294
· range 1169–1419
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1247
Q3 1418
1678
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 13.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
