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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championsips
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
54.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1678
· median 1678
· range 1678–1678
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1247
Q3 1418
1678
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
