Water Penguin MillTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
0-2-4
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.3%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1133
· median 1133
· range 1133–1133
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1128
Q1 1168
Q3 1322
1392
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
