← Derpy Cards Distorted Reflection Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Derpy Cards Distorted Reflection Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 100.0% | 60.3% | 71.4% | 60.3% | 1750 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 100.0% | 60.9% | 60.0% | 55.1% | 1549 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 61.2% | 54.0% | 51.8% | 1423 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.0% | 51.5% | 1480 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.0% | 51.5% | 1480 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 33.3% | 10 | 40.0% | 49.1% | 47.5% | 49.6% | 1376 | — |
| 7 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 44.1% | 40.0% | 45.6% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Overlord | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.9% | 33.3% | 34.9% | 1162 | ↓ low |