← Gold Star DTR Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at Gold Star DTR Store Championship
decks
3
(21.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
5-9-0
overall winrate
35.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.1%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1428
· median 1385
· range 1351–1550
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
996
Q1 1351
Q3 1429
1550
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Arcane | 14.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.8% | +7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.7% | -10.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.7% | -19.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.7% | -19.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
